2009 to be record warm year

Next year is set to be one of the five warmest on record, climate scientists have predicted.

The average global temperature for 2009 is expected to be more than 0.4C above the long term average, making next year warmer than this year and the hottest since 2005, the Met Office and University of East Anglia researchers said.

Next year is expected to be in the top five warmest on record despite the cooling influence of the Pacific weather phenomenon known as La Nina, in which cold waters rise to the surface and cool ocean and land temperatures.

The Met Office also predicted a rapid return to long-term warming for global temperatures and an increased probability of record temperatures after 2009.

Currently the warmest year on record is 1998, which was dominated by the warming influence of an extreme El Nino and saw average temperatures of 14.52C - well above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 14C.

Prof Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature.

"Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Nina has given way to a weaker La Nina.

"Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Nino develops."